Challenges and Techniques of Scenario Analysis

The Institute of Operational Risk England and Wales Chapter is pleased to invite you to a specialised workshop on Scenario Analysis on October 17th, from 8:30 am to 11:30 am, generously sponsored by Mitsubishi UFJ Securities.

The title of the event is Challenges and Techniques of Scenario Analysis.

Scenario Analysis can be a difficult exercise for many organisations, due to the remoteness of the events, especially for smaller firms, the very different profiles of specific Operational Risks, and the reliability of estimation, which is complicated by both behavioural biases and the challenges of validation.

This interactive workshop session will be presented by Michael Grimwade of Mitsubishi UFJ Securities and discuss the following topics:

–    Challenges of Scenario Analysis:  the differing profiles of Operational Risks; the cognitive biases that can impact Risk Managers & Regulators alike; and the greater remoteness of large losses for smaller firms;

–    Estimation techniques for Scenario Analysis:  ranging from expert judgement, including Delphi, to casual modelling and fault tree analysis; and

–    Validation of Scenario Analysis in practice:  through back-testing against internal & external losses; benchmarking to internal & external models and comparison to insurance.

Michael Grimwade is International Head of Operational Risk for Mitsubishi UFJ Securities and he has almost 20 years of experience in Operational Risk Management gained from senior roles at RBS and Lloyds TSB, and before that a decade as a management consultant working primarily at PWC and Deloitte Consulting.

Agenda of the event :

8:30 to 9:00: Coffee, pastries & networking;

9:00 to 10:30: Challenges & techniques of Scenario Analysis

10:30 to 11:00: Questions time

11:00  to 11:30: Conclusion, coffee & networking

11:30:  End

This event is free to IOR members.

For non-members there is a charge of £50.00.

Location: 2nd floor atrium, Ropemaker Place, 25 Ropemaker Street, London, EC2Y 9AJ.

Date:  Thursday 17th October 2013

Time:  8.30 – 11.30

It is anticipated that this will be a popular seminar and there is a limited number of spaces therefore you are encouraged to register as soon as possible. Please click here to download a booking form.

We look forward to welcoming you on 17th October.

Regards,
Institute of Operational Risk
England and Wales Chapter